Forecast - 2026.04.03
There are nine days left until the 2026 parliamentary election. Our latest Krónikás-v3 model runs 40,000 possible election scenarios and counts how many times each party wins an outright majority (at least 100 seats). In 79.7% of scenarios, TISZA wins outright. Mi Hazánk’s probability of entering parliament has risen slightly, and the overall picture has stabilised. In the final week of the campaign, the model suggests that a meaningful shift would require an extraordinary event.
What is this forecast? (If you are reading for the first time)
SzázKilencvenKilenc is a data-driven, nonpartisan election forecast. The **Krónikás-v3** model filters out the partisan biases embedded in individual polls (so-called house effects), then runs 40,000 simulations of possible election outcomes. The result is not a single number but a **set of probabilities**: it shows how many of the 40,000 scenarios produce a majority for each party. This is analogous to a weather forecast: if we say there is an "80% chance of rain", that does not mean it will definitely rain -- it means that given the current conditions, rain is the most likely outcome. If it stays dry, the forecast was not wrong -- the 20% scenario can happen too.Current popularity
According to the latest estimate of our Bayesian time-series model, party support has barely moved in the past week.
| Party | Popularity |
|---|---|
| TISZA | 47.4% |
| Fidesz-KDNP | 42.0% |
| Mi Hazánk | 5.4% |
| MKKP | 2.6% |
| DK | 2.5% |
TISZA leads by 5.4 percentage points. This is marginally narrower than a week ago (5.7 pp), but the difference falls within the model’s uncertainty band and is not statistically significant. The situation is essentially stagnant.
Election day forecast: a stable TISZA advantage
Vote share and seats
Our election day forecast shows that TISZA receives the most votes in 83.2% of simulations and wins the most seats in 83.5% of simulations.
The table below shows the expected average seat counts across all simulations:
| Party | Average seats |
|---|---|
| TISZA | 112.7 |
| Fidesz-KDNP | 82.3 |
| Mi Hazánk | 4.0 |
| DK | 0.0 |
| MKKP | 0.0 |
TISZA’s average seat count of 112.7 holds firmly above the 100-seat majority threshold. Fidesz-KDNP averages 82.3 seats.
Outcome probabilities
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| TISZA majority (100+ seats) | 79.7% |
| Fidesz-KDNP majority (100+ seats) | 11.8% |
| DEADLOCK (neither reaches 100) | 8.5% |
| TISZA two-thirds majority (133+) | 11.4% |
| Fidesz-KDNP two-thirds majority (133+) | 0.0% |
The big picture has not changed meaningfully in a week. But what does a 79.7% TISZA majority probability actually mean? It means that in 79.7% of the 40,000 simulations, TISZA crosses the 100-seat threshold and can form a government alone – without needing any coalition partner. In the remaining 20%, either Fidesz-KDNP wins the majority (11.8%), or neither party reaches 100 seats (8.5%).
Fidesz-KDNP’s probability has declined slightly to 11.8% (from 12.4%). The probability of a deadlock has edged up from 7.9% to 8.5%, driven by a slight strengthening of Mi Hazánk. TISZA’s two-thirds probability has fallen from 13.8% to 11.4% – meaning roughly one in nine simulations now produces a TISZA supermajority.
Probability of a deadlock: 8.5%
A deadlock would occur if neither party reaches 100 seats on its own. The probability of this stands at 8.5%. The main driver of a deadlock scenario is Mi Hazánk: if the party enters parliament, seats are split three ways, and TISZA’s vote share lead translates less directly into a seat advantage.
Small parties: Mi Hazánk near the threshold
| Party | Probability of entry | Expected vote share |
|---|---|---|
| Mi Hazánk | 62.5% | 5.4% |
| DK | 0.0% | 2.5% |
| MKKP | 0.0% | 2.6% |
Mi Hazánk’s probability of entering parliament has edged up from 61.0% to 62.5%. The party’s average vote share has stabilised around 5.5%. The 5% threshold is close, and uncertainty is high: in roughly four out of six simulations the party clears it, and in two it does not. This single factor carries more uncertainty for the final outcome than anything else in the model.
DK and MKKP remain below the entry threshold with no realistic chance of entering parliament.
Coalition scenarios
| Coalition | Majority (100+) | Two-thirds (133+) |
|---|---|---|
| Fidesz-KDNP alone | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Fidesz + Mi Hazánk | 20.3% | 0.0% |
| TISZA alone | 79.7% | 11.4% |
| TISZA + Mi Hazánk | 88.2% | 16.3% |
The Fidesz + Mi Hazánk coalition has a 20.3% chance of securing a majority – essentially unchanged from last week’s 20.2%. The coalition arithmetic depends heavily on Mi Hazánk: if they enter parliament, the right-wing bloc has a one-in-five chance of forming a majority; if they do not, Fidesz-KDNP’s standalone probability drops to just 11.8%.
TISZA’s standalone majority at 79.7% makes coalition-free government by far the most likely outcome.
The probability of DK and MKKP entering parliament is effectively zero (both 0.0%).
What has changed since the previous forecast?
| Indicator | Mar. 28 | Apr. 3 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Probability of TISZA majority | 79.7% | 79.7% | – |
| Probability of Fidesz majority | 12.4% | 11.8% | 📉 -0.6pp |
| Probability of deadlock | 7.9% | 8.5% | 📈 +0.6pp |
| Probability of TISZA two-thirds | 13.8% | 11.4% | 📉 -2.4pp |
| Mi Hazánk entry probability | 61.0% | 62.5% | 📈 +1.5pp |
| TISZA vote share (mean) | 47.4% | 47.4% | – |
| Fidesz vote share (mean) | 41.7% | 42.0% | 📈 +0.3pp |
| TISZA average seats | 113.4 | 112.7 | 📉 -0.7 |
All movements fall within the model’s uncertainty band. The past week has brought no meaningful shift. The picture is defined by stability, not change.
Nine days out: the bottom line
The three numbers that matter most today:
- 79.7% – TISZA’s probability of an outright majority
- 11.8% – Fidesz-KDNP’s probability of an outright majority
- 62.5% – Mi Hazánk’s probability of entering parliament
The past week confirmed expectations rather than delivering surprises. TISZA’s lead is stable, Fidesz-KDNP’s position has not improved, and Mi Hazánk continues to hover near the threshold. For Fidesz-KDNP to reverse the current situation, an extraordinary shift would be needed in the remaining nine days – the model puts the odds of that at less than one in eight.
Important note: Current popularity figures reflect the present situation. Election day results are forecasts calculated from 40,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Actual results may differ from the forecast.
This forecast is based solely on statistical models and does not constitute a political position.
The polling data come from the Vox Populi database, for whose work I hereby express my thanks.
