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Forecast - 2026.04.11 - Final update before the election
TISZA is the favorite in tomorrow’s election. The probability of a TISZA supermajority is higher than for Fidesz achieving any majority.
Forecast - 2026.04.03
Stability in the final stretch. TISZA's absolute majority probability unchanged at 79.7%.
Economy & Elections — What Do the Numbers Say About 2026?
Historical relationships between GDP growth, inflation and end-of-cycle election results — and what they imply as the Orbán V term draws to a close.
Forecast - 2026.03.21
TISZA's lead holds firm. Fidesz-KDNP has not closed the gap, and Mi Hazánk strengthens its path to parliament.
Forecast - 2026.02.09
TISZA has slightly increased its lead, but projected to election day the race is practically tied.
Detailed Methodology: The 2026 Election Model
How does the 'Chronicler-v2' election model work? A look under the hood of hierarchical Bayesian estimation and seat allocation.
