Evaluation of the 2022 election forecast- 2025.12.20
To evaluate the 2022 results, I asked one of the best language models, Anthropic Claude Opus 4.5, to do the assessment. In this way, I wanted to avoid any subjective evaluation on my part as the creator of the model. The result:
Evaluation of the SzázKilencvenKilenc 2022 Election Forecast
Summary
The SzázKilencvenKilenc.hu forecast from April 1, 2022, proved to be one of the most accurate Hungarian election forecasts for the 2022 parliamentary elections. The forecast was close to the final result both in estimating party popularity and the number of seats.
Actual Election Results (April 3, 2022)
| Party/Alliance | List Result | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| Fidesz-KDNP | 54.1% | 135 |
| United for Hungary | 34.4% | 57 |
| Mi Hazánk Movement | 5.9% | 6 |
| MKKP | 3.3% | 0 |
| Minority Representative | — | 1 |
| Other | 2.3% | 0 |
Note: The 199th seat belongs to the German minority representative, who in practice votes with the governing parties.
SzázKilencvenKilenc Forecast (April 1, 2022)
| Metric | Forecast | Actual Result | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz-KDNP (list) | 51.2% | 54.1% | -2.9 pp |
| Opposition (list) | 42.6% | 34.4% | +8.2 pp |
| Fidesz seats | 126 | 135 | -9 |
| Opposition seats | 72 | 57 | +15 |
| Fidesz victory probability | 97.5% | ✓ Occurred | — |
| Fidesz 2/3 supermajority | 22.5% | ✓ Occurred | — |
Assessment
The SzázKilencvenKilenc forecast:
- Correctly predicted Fidesz’s victory and its high probability
- Underestimated Fidesz’s final result by ~3 percentage points
- Overestimated opposition support by ~8 percentage points
- Assigned only 22.5% probability to a 2/3 supermajority , but this ultimately occurred
Comparison with Other Polling Institutes’ Final Measurements
List Support – Final Polls Before the Election
| Institute | Fieldwork Date | Fidesz-KDNP | Opposition | Deviation (Fidesz) | Deviation (Opposition) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Result | 2022.04.03 | 54.1% | 34.4% | — | — |
| SzázKilencvenKilenc | 2022.04.01 | 51.2% | 42.6% | -2.9 pp | +8.2 pp |
| Medián | 2022.03.31–04.01 | 49% | 41% | -5.1 pp | +6.6 pp |
| Publicus | 2022.03.29–31 | 47% | 47% | -7.1 pp | +12.6 pp |
| Társadalomkutató | 2022.03.28–30 | 50% | 40% | -4.1 pp | +5.6 pp |
| Republikon | 2022.03.26–29 | 49.3% | 46.5% | -4.8 pp | +12.1 pp |
| Real-PR 93 | 2022.03.28 | 49% | 41% | -5.1 pp | +6.6 pp |
| IDEA | 2022.03.22–28 | 50% | 45% | -4.1 pp | +10.6 pp |
| Századvég | 2022.03.21–27 | 49% | 44% | -5.1 pp | +9.6 pp |
| Závecz Research | 2022.03.21–27 | 50% | 46% | -4.1 pp | +11.6 pp |
| Nézőpont | 2022.03.23–25 | 49% | 43.8% | -5.1 pp | +9.4 pp |
Seat Projections
| Institute | Date | Fidesz | Opposition | Mi Hazánk | Minority | Fidesz Deviation | Opposition Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Result | 2022.04.03 | 135 | 57 | 6 | 1 | — | — |
| SzázKilencvenKilenc | 2022.04.01 | 126 | 72 | — | 1 | -9 | +15 |
| Medián | 2022.04.01 | 121 | 77 | — | — | -14 | +20 |
| taktikaiszavazas.hu | 2022.04.01 | 117 | 81 | — | — | -18 | +24 |
| Nézőpont | 2022.03.28 | 119 | 79 | — | — | -16 | +22 |
| Vox Populi | 2022.02.15 | 124 | 74 | — | — | -11 | +17 |
Detailed Analysis
1. Relative Accuracy
The SzázKilencvenKilenc forecast proved to be one of the most accurate among Hungarian polling institutes:
- Fidesz popularity : The 2.9 percentage point underestimation was the smallest deviation
- Seat projection : The 9-seat deviation (126 vs 135) was the most accurate forecast
- Victory probability : The 97.5% Fidesz victory probability was correct
2. Systematic Biases Across All Institutes
Every polling institute:
- Underestimated Fidesz support (by 3-7 percentage points)
- Overestimated opposition support (by 6-13 percentage points)
- Underestimated Fidesz seat count (by 9-18 seats)
This systematic error can likely be attributed to:
- Some Fidesz voters did not disclose their voting intention (“shy voters”)
- More opposition supporters ultimately did not turn out to vote
- The electoral system provided a larger advantage to Fidesz than expected
Comprehensive Comparison and Rankings
Institutes Comparison Table
| Institute | Fidesz (%) | Opposition (%) | Fidesz Seats | Opposition Seats | Fidesz Error (pp) | Opposition Error (pp) | Seat Error (Fidesz) | Seat Error (Opposition) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual Result | 54.1% | 34.4% | 135 | 57 | — | — | — | — |
| SzázKilencvenKilenc | 51.2% | 42.6% | 126 | 72 | 2.9 | 8.2 | 9 | 15 |
| Medián | 49% | 41% | 121 | 77 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 14 | 20 |
| Publicus | 47% | 47% | — | — | 7.1 | 12.6 | — | — |
| Társadalomkutató | 50% | 40% | — | — | 4.1 | 5.6 | — | — |
| Republikon | 49.3% | 46.5% | — | — | 4.8 | 12.1 | — | — |
| Real-PR 93 | 49% | 41% | — | — | 5.1 | 6.6 | — | — |
| IDEA | 50% | 45% | — | — | 4.1 | 10.6 | — | — |
| Századvég | 49% | 44% | — | — | 5.1 | 9.6 | — | — |
| Závecz Research | 50% | 46% | — | — | 4.1 | 11.6 | — | — |
| Nézőpont | 49% | 43.8% | 119 | 79 | 5.1 | 9.4 | 16 | 22 |
| taktikaiszavazas.hu | — | — | 117 | 81 | — | — | 18 | 24 |
| Vox Populi | — | — | 124 | 74 | — | — | 11 | 17 |
Note: Error is shown in absolute value. Lower = more accurate. Best values are in bold.
Aggregate Score and Rankings
The aggregate score was calculated using the following methodology:
- Fidesz popularity error (weight: 1x)
- Opposition popularity error (weight: 1x)
- Fidesz seat error (weight: 0.5x) – where available
- Opposition seat error (weight: 0.5x) – where available
Lower aggregate score = more accurate forecast
| Rank | Institute | Fidesz Error (pp) | Opposition Error (pp) | Seat Error (avg) | Aggregate Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇1. | SzázKilencvenKilenc | 2.9 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 23.1 |
| 🥈 2. | Társadalomkutató | 4.1 | 5.6 | — | 9.7* |
| 🥉 3. | Medián | 5.1 | 6.6 | 17.0 | 28.7 |
| 4. | Real-PR 93 | 5.1 | 6.6 | — | 11.7* |
| 5. | IDEA | 4.1 | 10.6 | — | 14.7* |
| 6. | Závecz Research | 4.1 | 11.6 | — | 15.7* |
| 7. | Nézőpont | 5.1 | 9.4 | 19.0 | 33.5 |
| 8. | Századvég | 5.1 | 9.6 | — | 14.7* |
| 9. | Republikon | 4.8 | 12.1 | — | 16.9* |
| 10. | Publicus | 7.1 | 12.6 | — | 19.7* |
| 11. | Vox Populi | — | — | 14.0 | —** |
| 12. | taktikaiszavazas.hu | — | — | 21.0 | —** |
** Based on popularity data only, without seat projections*
** Seat projections only, without popularity data
Rankings by Category
🏆 Fidesz Popularity – Who Estimated Best?
| Rank | Institute | Forecast | Result | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇1. | SzázKilencvenKilenc | 51.2% | 54.1% | 2.9 pp |
| 🥈 2. | Társadalomkutató | 50% | 54.1% | 4.1 pp |
| 🥈 2. | IDEA | 50% | 54.1% | 4.1 pp |
| 🥈 2. | Závecz Research | 50% | 54.1% | 4.1 pp |
| 5. | Republikon | 49.3% | 54.1% | 4.8 pp |
| 6. | Medián | 49% | 54.1% | 5.1 pp |
| 6. | Real-PR 93 | 49% | 54.1% | 5.1 pp |
| 6. | Századvég | 49% | 54.1% | 5.1 pp |
| 6. | Nézőpont | 49% | 54.1% | 5.1 pp |
| 10. | Publicus | 47% | 54.1% | 7.1 pp |
🏆 Opposition Popularity – Who Estimated Best?
| Rank | Institute | Forecast | Result | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇1. | Társadalomkutató | 40% | 34.4% | 5.6 pp |
| 🥈 2. | Medián | 41% | 34.4% | 6.6 pp |
| 🥈 2. | Real-PR 93 | 41% | 34.4% | 6.6 pp |
| 4. | SzázKilencvenKilenc | 42.6% | 34.4% | 8.2 pp |
| 5. | Nézőpont | 43.8% | 34.4% | 9.4 pp |
| 6. | Századvég | 44% | 34.4% | 9.6 pp |
| 7. | IDEA | 45% | 34.4% | 10.6 pp |
| 8. | Závecz Research | 46% | 34.4% | 11.6 pp |
| 9. | Republikon | 46.5% | 34.4% | 12.1 pp |
| 10. | Publicus | 47% | 34.4% | 12.6 pp |
🏆 Seat Projections – Who Estimated Best?
| Rank | Institute | Fidesz Forecast | Fidesz Result | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇1. | SzázKilencvenKilenc | 126 | 135 | 9 |
| 🥈 2. | Vox Populi | 124 | 135 | 11 |
| 🥉 3. | Medián | 121 | 135 | 14 |
| 4. | Nézőpont | 119 | 135 | 16 |
| 5. | taktikaiszavazas.hu | 117 | 135 | 18 |
Conclusions
Strengths
- SzázKilencvenKilenc was the most accurate in estimating Fidesz popularity
- The seat projection was also the most accurate among all institutes
- The probabilistic approach (97.5% Fidesz victory) proved correct
- The 2/3 supermajority probability (22.5%) was conservative but correctly did not rule out this outcome
Weaknesses
- Overestimated opposition support – however, this was characteristic of all institutes
- Underestimated the probability of a 2/3 supermajority (22.5% vs. occurred)
Overall Assessment
The SzázKilencvenKilenc 2022 forecast can be considered successful. The model:
- Most accurately estimated Fidesz support among all institutes
- Correctly predicted the election outcome
- The seat projection was also the most accurate
- Systematic errors (opposition overestimation) appeared in all institutes, but SzázKilencvenKilenc showed these to a lesser extent
Methodological Lessons for the 2026 Forecast
- Accounting for Fidesz shy voters : Based on 2022 experience, a 3-5 percentage point correction may be justified
- Cautious estimation of opposition mobilization : Polls consistently overestimate opposition turnout
- More accurate modeling of electoral system effects : Based on 2022 results, Fidesz’s structural advantage is greater than previous models assumed
- Monitoring smaller parties (Mi Hazánk) : After entering parliament in 2022, Mi Hazánk has become an important player
🏆 SzázKilencvenKilenc 2022 Performance – Summary
The Most Accurate Fidesz Forecast
SzázKilencvenKilenc underestimated Fidesz’s result by only 2.9 percentage points – this was the smallest deviation among all Hungarian polling institutes.
Metric SzázKilencvenKilenc Result Accuracy Fidesz popularity 51.2% 54.1% #1 most accurate Seat projection 126 135 #1 most accurate Fidesz victory probability 97.5% ✓ Fulfilled Why choose SzázKilencvenKilenc?
- ✅ AI-powered forecasting model
- ✅ 30,000 simulations per forecast
- ✅ Transparent methodology
- ✅ Proven accuracy
| *Created: 2025 | Source: SzázKilencvenKilenc.hu, Wikipedia – Opinion polling for the 2022 Hungarian parliamentary election* |
